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Was it constitutional for Proposition 124 to replace PSPRS' permanent benefit increases with a capped 2% COLA?

In this blog I and multiple commenters have broached the subject of the suspect constitutionality of PSPRS' replacement of the old perma...

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Cold feet in Canada? - An intriguing bit of information about PSPRS Administrator-select Kevin Olineck from the August 13, 2015 Board of Trustees special meeting

The PSPRS Board of Trustees had a special meeting today with the only business listed on the agenda as this:
Discussion of possible Action regarding selection of a job search firm to conduct a national search for a PSPRS Administrator.
The June 17, 2015 Board of Trustees regular meeting agenda included this routine-seeming piece of business listed as agenda item 25:
Update, discussion and possible Action on the System Administrator position and other personnel matters.
So obviously something seems to have changed in the last two months, so I looked back into the May 27, 2015 meeting minutes, which includes this bombshell:
The visa process was not successful and as per the agreement with the candidate, the offer will be withdrawn on either June 14 or 15, 2015.  The Administrator Selection Committee will reestablish itself to move forward.
So it now appears that Kevin Olineck will not be the new PSPRS Administrator.  It seems odd that a Canadian pension fund manager fulfilling a professional commitment could not get a visa to work in the United States, especially with the lax immigration policy of the current administration.   I suppose it could be this simple, as implausible as it may be, or maybe the British Columbia Pension Corporation offered him more money to stay.  Of course there is also the chance that as he learned more about the PSPRS and the Administrator job, the less attractive it became to him.

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

PSPRS' problems in a nutshell: Tempe's pension spiking deal with firefighters

Whenever there is a glimmer of hope that fair, sensible, and lasting pension reform can be accomplished, we get a reminder of  how PSPRS got into its current mess in the first place.  Exhibit A is the recent news that the City of Tempe is going to reclassify payments for sick and vacation leave sellback in a way to make them pensionable again, in order to skirt state law that excludes these payments from pensionable income .  The Arizona Republic has this August 4, 2015 story, and two opposing editorials Tempe pension gimmick sticks it to taxpayers by the Arizona Republic editors and Performance pay is not 'pension spiking' by Don Jongewaard, president of the Tempe Fire Fighters union, appeared on August 4 and August 9, 2015, respectively.

Up until recently, some employers did allow payments for unused sick and vacation leave to be included in pension calculations, despite a state law that clearly prohibited it.  The relevant Arizona statute reads:

"Compensation" means, for the purpose of computing retirement benefits, base salary, overtime pay, shift differential pay, military differential wage pay, compensatory time used by an employee in lieu of overtime not otherwise paid by an employer and holiday pay paid to an employee by the employer on a regular monthly, semimonthly or biweekly payroll basis and longevity pay paid to an employee at least every six months for which contributions are made to the system pursuant to section 38-843, subsection D. Compensation does not include, for the purpose of computing retirement benefits, payment for unused sick leave, payment in lieu of vacation, payment for unused compensatory time or payment for any fringe benefits. (Italics mine)
This practice allowed employees to save up their leave (mostly sick leave) over many years and received payments for it during their high-three years when their final pension was calculated.  This is pension spiking in its clearest form, where an employee's salary is artificially inflated during the years on which his final pension is based.  For example, an employee who sells back $5,000 a year in sick leave during his high-three years will raise his annual pension by over $200 a month, if he retires at 20 years (50% of average high-three salary for those hired before 2012).   The employee will pay about $1,747 (11.65% of $15,000) total over the three years, which he will recoup in his first nine months of retirement.  The City of Tempe has a non-phased-in contribution rate of just under 50% for the current fiscal year, so taxpayers will pay a total of about $7,500 in contributions at the current rate.  This blog has covered pension spiking in other posts, so I will not go further into the math, but it is important to remember how critical it is for contributions to compound over time.  End-of-career increases in pensionable salary, whether through leave sellback, overtime, or other enhancements, are the death by a thousand cuts that plagues PSPRS.

Fortunately, the Goldwater Institute successfully sued to stop this practice, and Phoenix and Tucson now prohibit it.  This should have been the end of this problem.  But not so fast.  The powers that be in the Tempe City Council and local firefighter union have thought up a method by which they can continue to slowly destroy their pension system and (hopefully) stay within the law.  Instead of receiving payments for leave already earned, employees with at least 17 years service would no longer accrue leave and receive the value of that foregone leave in the form of "medical and vacation performance pay" instead.  The tortured logic behind this plan is that since no previously accrued "unused" leave is actually being "sold" it is legal, although common sense tells us that employees are simply being paid for current leave that they would have earned and not used.  I do not see how this would not still be illegal.

This is not to say that there is anything wrong with selling back leave, only that it should not be pensionable.  I do not know if all, but many public safety agencies, have a requirement known as constant staffing, which means that all uniformed positions must be filled at all times.  This means that employees on sick or vacation leave must be always be covered by another uniformed employee.  This requires the payment of overtime to off-duty personnel if enough employees are absent, and discouraging leave use, particularly sick leave, saves employers money.  In his editorial, Mr. Jongewaard, the Tempe Fire Fighters union president, makes this point as well.  This is great since this is something that many taxpayers may not know about public safety work.

However, Mr. Jongewaard does not make a case for why payments for unused leave should be pensionable.  Employees will still receive the future pay incentive for limiting their use of sick leave, regardless of whether the payments are pensionable.  Employees still sell back sick leave where I work, even though it is no longer considered pensionable, because the financial incentive is attractive enough.  Even more telling is his lack of an explanation as to why a sick and vacation leave sellback program  needs to be contorted into a "medical and vacation performance pay" program.   It is obvious why.  It is an attempt to violate state law that specifically forbids this practice.  If you still doubt that this program in Tempe is pension spiking, look at the threshold for the program, 17 years.  It seems like a strange time to start the program--why not 15 or 20 years?  Where I work the amount of sick leave you can sell back increases at the following intervals: 5 years, 10 years, 17 years, and 22 years.  The reason for this unusual pattern of  increases is apparent when when we think of pension calculations.  Those hired before 2012 can retire at 50% of their average high-three year salary at 20 years service and at 62.5% of their average high three-year salary after 25 years service.  Is it a coincidence that the last two thresholds just happen to begin within three years of 20 and 25 years?  Of course not.

The more militant folks out there, who do not care at all about the taxpayer, may applaud Mr. Jongewaard and the union for cleverly extracting this benefit from the Tempe City Council, as after all, this is what a union is supposed to do.  True, however, is it really beneficial when you negotiate for a policy that will continue to bleed your own pension and divert scant department budget from current wages and benefits?  Also, does this benefit all Tempe firefighters?  Those hired in 2012 or later already have to work longer, pay more, and receive fewer benefits from PSPRS.  I have made the point before that unions act less as a collective working for all members and more like a seniority protection organization.  This seems to be the case here.  Those like Mr. Jongewaard, who states he has over 21 years of service, will certainly benefit from this pension spiking scheme, but this is not the case for someone just starting a career.  Newer firefighters and those who join the department in the future will see their wages impacted for the rest of their careers because their employer will have to plow more money into an underfunded PSPRS in order to pay the spiked benefits of those who retired decades before.  Passing the costs of one generation's excess on to future generations is hardly fraternal behavior.

Missing here is the perspective of the Tempe City Council.  The firefighter union at least can make a case for this policy out of naked, if misguided, self-interest.  What of the Tempe City Council?  They got nothing of value out of this for taxpayers, just higher pension contributions and a future lawsuit they will have to fight.  Now would be the time cue the conspiracy theorists, but unfortunately, I think
this is just business as usual in a world of other people's money and explains a lot about PSPRS' current woes.  If this is what the Tempe City Council will do when PSPRS is dangerously underfunded, what would they give up in good financial times?

Saturday, August 8, 2015

How PSPRS digs itself deeper into a hole without even trying

For me the math and methodologies involved in pension accounting get so complicated and arcane, that it seems more like art than science so I am grateful whenever I see something that provides a simple explanation of a pension accounting concept.  An example is this small piece, David Crane explains the ramifications of CalPERS' 2.4% return for the past year, that appeared on the Pension Tsunami website.  In it, Mr. Crane's explains how an underfunded pension, like PSPRS, is in much worse shape than it appears at first glance:
Recently newspapers have reported that CalPERS earned 2.4% over the last twelve months and contrasted that return with its 7.5% assumed rate of return. But what those newspapers have not reported is that CalPERS needs to earn much more than 7.5% per annum for its unfunded liability not to grow.
This is because (i) under US public pension fund accounting, liabilities grow at the assumed rate of return and (ii) currently, liabilities exceed assets. That means assets have to grow faster than the assumed rate of return in order to keep up with liabilities.
As a simplified example, let’s say a public pension fund has a 77% funding ratio, which means that it has assets equal to 77% of liabilities. For greater simplicity, let’s say it has assets of $77 and liabilities of $100, and therefore an unfunded liability of $23 (100-77). Because of item (i) above, liabilities grow 7.5% per annum. That means liabilities that today equal $100 will in one year equal $107.50. For the unfunded liability not to be larger than $23 at that time, that means assets have to grow from $77 to $84.50 (107.50-84.50 = 23). That means that the pension fund needs to earn 9.7% ($77 times 1.097 = 84.50). Anything less and the unfunded liability will grow.
This is why it’s so hard for US public pension funds to catch up once they fall behind. See this relevant article from The Economist.
If we use Mr. Crane's same calculations, how much does PSPRS, which was only funded at 50.4% on June 30, 2014, need to earn in a year to keep its unfunced liability from growing?  At the 50.4% funded ratio (assets divided by liabilities), PSPRS has only $50.40 in assets to pay off the $100.00 it owes to its members, leaving an unfunded liability of $49.60.  The $100.00 liability will grow the next year to $107.85 at its current expected rate of return (ERR) of 7.85%.  In order for the unfunded liability to stay at $49.60, PSPRS' assets would need to grow from $50.40 to $58.25 (107.85-58.25 = 49.60), which translates to an annual interest rate of 15.56% (50.40*1.1557 = 58.25).

If PSPRS were to earn the 7.85%, the 50.4% funded ratio would not change since both its assets and its liability would go up proportionately, but the actual dollar amount of the unfunded portion would increase from $49.60 to $53.49 [the new assets would be (50.40*1.0785 = 54.36) and the new unfunded amount would be (107.85-54.36 = 53.49)].  We can see why returns that exceed the ERR are so important when you have a deficit.

It appears that PSPRS will not reach its ERR for the 2015 fiscal year that just ended.  I estimate that PSPRS will earn somewhere between 4.5% and 5.0%.  If PSPRS earned only 5.0% in the last fiscal year, its liability will again grow to $107.85, but its assets will only grow to $52.92.  This will mean that its unfunded portion will grow from $49.60 to $54.93, and the funded ratio will only be 49.07%, a decrease of 1.33%. 

This is an oversimplification of how PSPRS calculates its funded ratio because PSPRS uses a seven-year smoothing period to spread out gains and losses more evenly.  If we do not factor in the negative effects of the Hall lawsuit and a lowering of the ERR to 7.5%, PSPRS should actually see a positive movement in its funded ratio over the next two years because the extraordinarily large losses incurred during the Great Recession should fall out of the seven-year smoothing period.  Regardless, Mr. Crane's calculations are still very enlightening as to how critical market returns are to an underfunded pension.

The interesting thing to look at here is how COLA's or permanent benefit increases (PBI) under the excess earnings model affect the funded ratio.  Remember that at the current funded ratio of 50.4%, PSPRS would need to earn 15.56% to keep its total unfunded liability from increasing.  Remember also that with the excess earning model, PSPRS must pay half of any earnings over 9.0% into a special fund that can only be used to pay COLA's.  This means that PSPRS would actually have to earn a whopping 22.12% in order for its liability to remain the same.  The 6.56% over the 9.0% COLA threshold would need to be doubled in order to maintain the 15.56% rate since half of anything over 9.0% would be placed in the COLA fund.

If PSPRS actually did earn the 15.56% in a year, its unfunded liability would still grow because 3.28% of the gain over 9.0% would go into the COLA fund.  Using our earlier numbers, the liability would still grow from $100 to $107.85.  However, the assets would grow from $50.40 to $56.59 (50.40*1.1228), and $1.65 (50.40*0.0328) would go into the COLA fund.  This means that the original unfunded liability would increase about $1.65 from $49.60 to $51.26 (107.85-56.59).  So even if PSPRS earns 15.56% its unfunded liability will still grow larger when the excess earnings COLA model is in place.

Now if we multiply the figures we have been using by $100 million to bring them more in line with PSPRS' actual assets and liabilities, we can see how much money we are actually talking about.  A
$4.96 billion unfunded liability would grow by about $165 million to $5.126 billion, despite the fact that PSPRS earned an outstanding 15.56% return on its investments.  The other $165 million would be used to pay a COLA of up to 4% of the average normal retirement, which would increase the total liability and further widen the gap between assets and liabilities.  This is exactly what you don't want to happen when you are already in the hole.

Friday, July 17, 2015

Here's the good news and bad news if you're a PSPRS retiree expecting a COLA

Normally around this time every month, we can see the monthly returns for PSPRS.  Unfortunately, the PSPRS Board of Trustees is not having a July meeting this year, so I have no PSPRS month end returns to post for May 2015.  The following table has updated monthly returns from the Russell 3000 and estimates for the YTD returns for May and June 2015:

Report PSPRS PSPRS Russell 3000 Russell 3000
Date Month End Fiscal YTD Month End Fiscal YTD
6/30/2014 0.78% 13.82% 2.51% 25.22%





7/31/2014 -0.67% -0.67% -1.97% -1.97%
8/31/2014 1.73% 1.05% 4.20% 2.14%
9/30/2014 -1.53% -0.49% -2.08% 0.01%
10/31/2014 0.40% -0.09% 2.75% 2.76%
11/30/2014 0.92% 0.82% 2.42% 5.25%
12/31/2014 -0.18% 0.64% 0.00% 5.25%
1/31/2015 0.01% 0.65% -2.78% 2.32%
2/28/2015 1.91% 2.58% 5.79% 8.25%
3/31/2015 0.83% 3.42% -1.02% 7.15%
4/30/2015 0.95% 4.40% 0.45% 7.63%
5/31/2015    ?    ? 1.38% 9.01% (est)
6/30/2015    ?    ? -1.67% 7.34% (est)

As can be seen, the Russell 3000 will have a 12-month return of around 7.30%.  While far removed from the 25.22% the returned last year by the Russell 3000, this is still a good return.  However, we are in the pension world here, so we have to look at two particular PSPRS benchmarks: the expected (or assumed) rate of return (ERR) of 7.85% and the permanent benefit increase (PBI) threshold (aka COLA) of 9.00%.

It is unlikely that PSPRS will reach either benchmark this fiscal year.  PSPRS would have to average about 1.75% for each of the last two months to reach 7.85% for the year.  This is important since not meeting your ERR is, for pension accounting purposes, a negative return and increases your liabilities.  Over a long period this is not a big deal since you will likely make it up in another year like last fiscal year, but PSPRS is already in deficit.  This will add more hardship to employers already struggling to pay their annual required contributions.  There is a remote chance that PSPRS could reach its ERR since it did surpass the Russell 3000's returns by 2.35% over the past two months, but I would still consider this very doubtful, especially when we consider that we must subtract half a percentage point from the final PSPRS returns to cover investment fees.  This would mean that PSPRS would actually have to earn about 2% each month to get to 7.85%.

Obviously, if PSPRS has only a remote chance to reach 7.85%, 9.00% will be impossible. PSPRS would have to earn over 5% in the last two months to get to 9.00%, considering investment fees, and barring a miracle, this ain't going to happen.  This means that PBI's will not be paid for the current fiscal year since, according to PSPRS, the PBI fund was depleted last year, and the failure to meet the 9.00% threshold will not allow any replenishment of the PBI fund this year.  That is the bad news if you are a retiree.

The good news is that for the 12-month period ending June 30, 2015 there was almost no inflation, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The inflation numbers can be found at the U.S. Inflation Calculator.  The past fiscal year inflation rate was 0.1%, meaning something that cost $100.00 on June 30, 2014 would cost only ten cents more a year later.  The 0.1% annual rate compares with a 2.1% inflation rate the year before.  Of course, your bills may tell a different story about how much things cost versus a year ago, but that's what the Consumer Price Index says.  Anyway, PSPRS, like the Cubs, always has next year.

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

What the Hall is going on? Legal issues surrounding the Hall and Parker cases against EORP and PSPRS

From this July, 13, 2015 Arizona Republic article by Craig Harris, Arizona Supreme Court picks five judges to hear pension case, we can now see that we will most likely have a final decision on the Hall case sometime next year, as the article states that the case will be heard before the end of 2015.  The actual decision may take longer, for if we look at the Fields case, it was argued before the Arizona Supreme Court on June 4, 2013, but the decision was not released until February 20, 2014, a lag of over eight months.  The interesting thing with the Hall case is that, in order to avoid a conflict of interest, the Arizona Supreme Court has appointed five judges who have no stake in the decision, as the five are under the new EORP system.  Hopefully, this specially appointed panel will mean that the case is decided more quickly since this is the only case on the panel's docket, though the judges will still have to deal with their regular assigned caseloads.  Regardless, this is a good time to talk about the legal issues surrounding Hall.

If you were an active member of PSPRS prior to July 2011, the Hall v. Elected Officials' Retirement Plan (EORP) case has huge significance for you.  Unlike Kenneth Fields, a retired judge who successfully sued EORP over SB 1609's change to COLA calculations for retirees, Philip Hall (who, according to Ballotpedia, retired in 2013) was an active judge at the time SB 1609 went into effect.  He, like the plaintiff in Parker v. PSPRS, an active law enforcement officer when SB 1609 went into effect, is suing over both SB 1609's change to COLA calculations for retirees and the increase in employee contribution rates.  Mr. Hall was successful in Maricopa Superior Court, and a final decision was rendered in January 2015.  The result in Hall, which has moved up to the Arizona Supreme Court, will determine the result for PSPRS members as well.  If Mr. Hall's case is fully or partially upheld by the Supreme Court, it would have enormous financial consequences for all PSPRS members.

A good explanation about the court cases involving PSPRS and EORP can be found at the Pension Litigation Tracker website run by the Laura and John Arnold Foundation.  This website gives a great timeline of all the events in both Fields and Hall, and the legal precedents for the decisions as of now.  If you are like me, you probably just want to know if Mr. Hall's case is going to be upheld on appeal.  This will determine how your future retirement COLA's are calculated, and in the near term, whether you will be a due a refund of your excess employee contributions and what your future contribution rate will be (7.65%, 11.65%, or another amount).  If Mr Hall is successful and, for example, you made $60,000 of pensionable income per year in the five fiscal year between July1, 2011 to June 30, 2016, you would be owed a refund of excess contributions of  $7,800 ($600 + $1,140 + $1,620 + $2,040 + $2,400) due to the annually increasing employee contribution rates (1.0%, 1.9%, 2.7%, 3.4%, and 4.0%) during those years.  Of course, it is impossible to know what the final decision will be since it all comes down to the five members of the Arizona Supreme Court-appointed panel, but the information provided gives some interesting points to discuss.

We should start off by saying that Mr. Hall seems likely to win his case (with a key caveat that we will talk about later) on SB 1609's changes to the COLA formulation for the same reason that Mr. Fields won.  Per Pension Litigation Tracker, there are three main constitutional issues in Hall and Fields:
  1. The Contracts Clause in Article II, §25 of the Arizona Constitution which states, "No bill of attainder, ex-post-facto law, or law impairing the obligations of a contract, shall ever be enacted."
  2. The Pension Protection Clause in Article XXIX, §1(C) of the Arizona Constitution which states, "Membership in a public retirement system is a contractual relationship that is subject to Article II, §25, and public retirement system benefits shall not be diminished or impaired.”
  3. The Yeazell v. Copins (1965) Arizona Supreme Court decision, "which held that a public employee’s interest in his retirement pension is a contractual one that vests at the outset of employment; and, the employee has a vested right to continued membership in the retirement pension plan 'under the same rules and regulations existing at the time of his employment.'"
You can read the full Fields decision here, but the Pension Clause was the main justification for deciding in Mr. Fields' favor.  The Court held that the COLA was a "benefit" as commonly understood and was in place at the time of Mr. Fields' retirement, so it could not "diminished or impaired."  The defendants argued that since there are conditions under which the Contracts Clause can be violated and the Pension Clause references the Contracts Clause it was permissible to impair and diminish benefits in certain cases.  The Court dismissed this by concluding that the Pension Clause actually gave extra and specific protection to pension benefits, otherwise there would have been no reason to add it to the Constitution.

This was a slam dunk for Mr. Fields, but the Hall case gets much more interesting for all of us who were active PSPRS members when SB 1609 went into effect if we consider two issues that the retired Mr. Fields did not have to worry about: vesting statutes and the increase in employee contribution rates.

The Hall case has raised the issue of when an EORP member fully vests.  Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Douglas Rayes initially ruled in favor of Mr. Hall, declaring both the original COLA formulation and lower contribution rates were pension benefits that could not be "diminished or impaired," but he excluded from this decision anyone hired after 2000, citing the 2000 EORP vesting statute which states that EORP members do not fully vest until they apply for benefits.  Judge Rayes later reconsidered this decision and concluded that it applied to all EORP members, regardless of when they joined EORP.

This is interesting because it shows a small crack in the wall that protects pension benefits, particularly for PSPRS members.  In March 2013, this judge initially agreed with EORP's contention that the vesting statue was "part of any contractual relationship created when post-2000 EORP members began their employment," and "it is clear under Yeazell that the terms of an employee's contract incorporate the statutes on the books at the time."  He reconsidered this decision in July 2013 and better clarified exactly what "vesting" means.  However, Judge Rayes, who seemed fairly sympathetic to the plaintiff's case, did initially find this common ground with the defendants.  Both EORP and CORP, the corrections officers' plan, having vesting statutes that date back to only 2000.  PSPRS's vesting statute dates all the way back to 1983!  Does this carry more weight since it goes back further?  Is there some precedent between 1983 and 2000 in which the vesting statue was used to impair benefits that could be used to justify impairing them now?  We will have to see, but this is the caveat I mentioned earlier that could affect PSPRS members if the panel interprets the PSPRS vesting statute as Judge Rayes initially did.  It could mean that the change in the COLA formulation could be found to be constitutional for the overwhelming majority of us.

The second issue of employee contribution rates is even more interesting.  In his March 2013 judgement, Judge Rayes states, "Plaintiffs argue that the 1998 Formula and 7% contribution rate are 'public retirement system benefits'.  The Court agrees.  Although Plaintiffs are not entitled to receive their retirement benefits until they are employed the required number of years, they are nevertheless legally vested in the formula under which their benefits are calculated."  The defendants argued that "the contribution rate is the price paid by the employee for the benefit, not the benefit itself."  On a common sense reading, the defendants seem to have the more compelling argument since the contribution rate has no bearing on the calculation of the benefit.  Retirees will still have their retirement calculated the same way and receive the same COLA, regardless of how much they are required to pay into the system.  This seems to stretch the Pension Clause way beyond its intent.

While Mr. Hall's lawyers also cited the Contract Clause and the Judicial Salary Clause, which prohibits decreases in a judge's salary during his term in office, to bolster his case, the precedent of Yeazell seems to make the strongest argument for the plaintiffs since it states that one is vested "under the same rules and regulations existing at the time of employment."  Yet all the past cases cited involve the conditions under which an employee can retire and how their post-employment benefits are calculated.  The cited cases all seem to involve a legislative change after someone joined the retirement system that alters the conditions of retirement or the calculation of post-employment benefits, not how much they paid for the benefits.  None of the cited cases seem to deal with an increase in the contribution rates of active employees, though Judge Rayes considered the contribution rate as a component of "retirement benefits," so this may be a new issue for the panel to decide. Do employees legally "vest" in the contribution rate that existed when they were hired?  Are contribution rates, or rather the lost income caused by increase over the initial rate, a "benefit" as opposed to a cost not unlike health insurance?

In its argument in Fields, EORP states this was not so.  They cited the 1992 case of Smith v. City of Phoenix, in which a city judge argued unsuccessfully that the salary structure under which he was hired, which by city statute kept his salary at 95% of superior court judges, was an enforceable contractual agreement.  The city changed the statute to hold city judges at their existing salary in advance of a pay raise for superior court judges, and Smith sued.  The Fields opinion says, "The court of appeals held that Smith had no contractual right to continued salary increases under the city ordinance, observing that his 'contract of employment' did not express 'that the method of calculating his salary would remain fixed throughout his term,'  and '[i]ndeed the fact that both parties knew his salary was established by a city ordinance, which was naturally subject to change by the city council, suggests just the opposite.'"  The Arizona Supreme Court dismissed the Smith case as irrelevant to Fields and wrote:
Assuming the case was correctly decided, we note that it reflects the general principle that statutory provisions do not create contractual rights . . .  But statutorily established retirement benefits are an exception to this rule . . . Under Yeazell, the right to a public pension on the terms promised vests upon acceptance of employment . . .  and "the State may not impair or abrogate that contract without offering consideration and obtaining consent of the employee
Mr. Fields was already retired when he sued EORP so the question of increased employee contributions was not germane to his case, yet EORP's use of Smith to bolster its case was interesting and seems likely to reappear when Hall is argued, where it would seem to be much more relevant.  All these statements are all very intriguing:
  • the method of calculating his salary would not be fixed throughout his term
  • assuming the case was correctly decided
  • statutory provisions do not create contractual rights
  • statutorily established retirement benefits are an exception to this rule
Yet we are still stuck without a definitive explanation as to if and how pension contribution rates fit under the umbrella of pension "benefits."  Only the opinions of those five judges matter.

Looking to other states that have tried to raise pension contribution rates, the general impression is favorable to do this legislatively, though among states with constitutional public pension protections, only the Michigan Supreme Court has so far upheld increases to existing employees' contribution rates.  Many of the cases are still being litigated, and others are being contested over different constitutional provisions.  Completed Supreme Court cases in Florida, Alabama, and New Hampshire all held that plaintiffs had no right to a fixed contribution rate, and for what its worth, the New Hampshire Supreme Court in its December 2014 decision cited the cases in Florida, Alabama, and Michigan as precedent.  Once again, we will have to see what those five judges think.

All this would seem to argue for the repeal of Article XXIX 1(C) of the Arizona Constitution so that public pension benefits do not get any extraordinary protection beyond any other contract.  Any pension "reform" that is financially adverse to a pension system member is a violation of Article II based on the precedent set in Yeazell.  Financially adverse pension reform is reneging on a contract established when the employee entered the pension system on hiring.  This was the case in 2011 with SB 1069 as it is now the case with the Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona's (PFFA) Operation Blue Falcon.  Under Article II and Yeazell, the PFFA's proposal is just as unconstitutional as SB 1609, if not in letter, certainly in spirit.  Furthermore, the PFFA "fix" is harmful to its own constituents and a worse plan than SB 1609.

Article XXIX 1(C) essentially makes pension reform impossible.  Even the PFFA's ridiculous proposal to amend Article XXIX via voter referendum will almost certainly face legal challenges under Article II and Yeazell.  The easiest thing to do is repeal Article XXIX 1(C) and allow the legislature to make reforms with input from all stakeholders, and we must accept that in probably every case there will be a lawsuit.  But without the special legal protections of Article XXIX 1(C), there might be a chance to get some reforms through that could incrementally fix the pension instead of dangerously trying to legislate via constitutional amendment.  The PFFA stated in 2011 that "No fix is needed for police, fire pension." Yet look where they are now.  The same lack of foresight they had back then infects them now.  If the PFFA sets a precedent now and "reforms" PSPRS by amending Article XXIX 1(C) and overriding Article II and Yeazell, what will stop some other group, perhaps one less friendly to public safety personnel, from amending it again in the future in a way that even the PFFA will not like.

Just something to think about, but regardless, we should all have a very interesting year ahead of us.  Stay tuned.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

The League of Arizona Cities and Towns Pension Task Force's plan for PSPRS: Several good ideas and one big problem

With all the discussion about the Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona's (PFFA) bad PSPRS pension reform plan, it is easy to miss another plan that is being developed by the League of Arizona Cities and Towns Pension Task Force ("the Task Force").  The preliminary Task Force Plan is available at their website, but a more thorough explanation is available on PDF pages 7-33 of the PSPRS Board of Trustees May 27, 2015 meeting materials.

I was particularly critical of the recommendations the Task Force put forth in the PSPRS employer seminars held this past spring, so let me start off by saying that, unlike those recommendations made to employers, this plan has much more to it and should be taken seriously, despite a major (and very likely fatal) flaw we will discuss later.

Here are the major points of the Task Force's plan:
  1. No transition to a defined contribution plan.
  2. Creating a new public safety pension system for those hired after some future date.
  3. Maintaining the current PSPRS benefit structure for retirees and workers hired before that future date until all have passed away.
  4. Pooling assets and liabilities.
  5. Fully funded status (100%) at all times.
  6. Equal cost sharing between employers and employees.
  7. Benefit increases paid through increases in contributions.
  8. True COLA's to keep retirees equal with inflation.
  9. Mandatory participation in an employer-matched defined contribution plan as supplement to retirement income, in lieu of Social Security.
  10. Changes to the governing structure of the new public safety pension, including the elimination of local boards and a different makeup of the Board of Trustees.
Let's start with the good parts of the Task Force's plan:

Point Number One:  The real good news is point number one, which is that the Task Force is not recommending a transition to a defined contribution retirement plan, like what happened to the Elected Officials' Retirement Plan (EORP).  However, this is not surprising since I am guessing that most of the Task Force are members of the Arizona State Retirement System (ASRS), and it would have been hypocritical for them to recommend the elimination of a defined benefit pension for someone else while they kept their own.

Point Number Six:  Their participation in ASRS likely influenced point number six, which is another good idea.  As ASRS members, they are on the hook for half of any annual contribution increases in their system, and that a system of shared sacrifice should be included in any new public safety pension system.  With a fixed employee contribution rate and an unlimited employer contribution rate, PSPRS is grossly unfair to taxpayers.  Also, no one can deny that ASRS is in much better financial shape than PSPRS, and I would argue that equal contributions are one of the reasons why.  As was discussed here, equal contribution levels show active employees the real financial health of PSPRS and allow for gradual changes in contribution rates to deal with problems before they get too big.

Point Number Seven:  Along the same lines is point number seven, which allows the cost of any benefit enhancement to be paid only through increases in contributions.  The fiction that you can rely on stellar market returns to enhance benefits has been blown to bits.  Requiring the prefunding of any benefit enhancement places the burden on those who will receive the benefit, not on future employees and taxpayers who are not around to object but will still have to pay for it.  A sustained bull market and an overfunded pension, no matter how permanent they may seem at the time, will no longer be an excuse to enhance benefits out of thin air.  We know now how transient an overfunded pension can be and that what goes up can always come back down.  So point number seven is another good idea.

Point Number Five:  Speaking of fictions, we can look at another good idea in point number eight.  You would think that the idea that a pension system is healthy at anything less than 100% funded would be viewed as nonsense.  Somehow, though, like some type of urban legend, it has become common to refer to a pension that is 80% funded as "healthy."  I am not sure why this is, but my limited knowledge of pension accounting includes the concept of a "collar," which I gather is a range that a pension's funding level can move, without undue concern, due to market, demographic, and other fluctuations.  That range seems to run between 80-120%, and one should not be concerned if your pension runs down into the 80's or up into the 110's as this is to be expected from time to time.  This would be fine, except the concept seems to have been corrupted.  Instead of the range being accepted as a area within which a pension could float up and down, the 80% appears to have become the benchmark of a "healthy" pension.  I suspect this is how PSPRS ended up with a financially unsound program like the DROP, which was developed in the late 1990's/early 2000's when PSPRS was briefly over 100% funded.  Instead of accepting the >100% status as a normal fluctuation that would be offset later by a future period of <100% funding, a program was devised to take that "excess money" sitting there.  We all know what has happened since then.  By setting a goal of 100% funding at all times, this type of problem should not happen again by making it clear where the pension should be at all times.

Point Number Eight:  Point number eight is probably the best idea the Task Force has put forward, though it is the most obvious: attempt to keep retirees even with inflation.  The fetish for formulas that determine cost of living allowances (COLA's) or permanent benefit increases (PBI's) comes from a desire to lock in an amount that cannot be changed later.  To that point, we end up with the shortsighted and harmful excess earnings formula we have now or the PFFA's destined-to-fail attempt to replace it.  The problem with both is that neither has any relation to inflation, the real increase in the cost of goods that retirees must pay when they no longer have the ability to work.  The excess earnings formula is great until inflation increases above 4% per year, then those who fought so hard to keep it will complain that they are slowly being robbed of the full value of their retirement.  This will be especially true as PSPRS throttles back its expected rate of return and/or becomes more conservative in its investments and the 9% threshold is rarely, if ever, exceeded.  (The PFFA wants to limit retirees to only a maximum of 2% per year.)  The goal of any COLA/PBI policy should be to maintain purchasing power throughout retirement.  This can only be done with a decision made on an annual basis.  Will this method always meet the level of inflation?  I don't know, but it will be more flexible than what we currently have or what is being proposed by the PFFA. 

Point Number Nine:  There is not too much to say about this point.  If employers are willing to match employees' contributions into a defined contribution plan, I say, "Where do we sign up?"

So those were the good points of the Task Force's plan.  Here are two that are difficult to say whether they are good or bad without greater detail:

Point Number Four:  I am not sure how the pooling of assets and liabilities will work.  As it stands right now, employers' assets are pooled, and all are placed in the same investments and all share proportionally in profits and losses on that pool of investments.  However, each employer has its assets and liabilities accounted for separately, and its contribution rates are assigned according to how closely their assets match the liabilities each owes to current and retired employees.  The Task Force plan appears to want to truly pool assets and liabilities in the sense that a single contribution rate for all employers that is calculated each year based on the total assets and total liabilities of the entire system, then split it 50/50 between employers and employees.  The Task Force even uses the example of the City of Prescott, which is struggling with an enormous unfunded PSPRS liability and is asking voters to raise the sales tax to help fund it, to make its point.  However, when we look at the huge disparity in employer contribution rates throughout PSPRS, is it fair to expect taxpayers in another area to make up for the errors of others throughout the state?

For the most part I would say "no."  However, Prescott is a strong example of a "yes" case since they were hit with the deaths of the nineteen Granite Mountain Hotshots.  While I believe that only nine of those lost, including the three retroactively placed into PSPRS, were eligible for PSPRS pensions, we have to remember the small size of the Prescott Fire Department, which their website says has 92 members.  These nine firefighters represent nearly ten percent of their department.  To put this in perspective this would be like the City of Tucson losing 60 firefighters or DPS losing 100 officers in one day.  Line of duty death pensions are 100% of the lost member's pensionable salary, so you can see why the pooling of liabilities would be a good thing in a case like Prescott's.

Fortunately, this is a rare case and, hopefully, will never happen again.  The problem I see will be when it comes to pension spiking.  Unless the Task Force's plan limits pensionable salary to base pay, what will stop one employer from allowing its employees to work more overtime than other employers' employees and pass the cost of the spiked pensions on to everyone else?  This is where the natural human impulse to work the system for maximum personal gain will come into play.  At least now these costs stay with the employer who allowed it.  If assets and liabilities are truly pooled, these costs will be hidden in a contribution rate borne by all employers and employees.

Point Number Ten:  While the Task Force does not explicitly say it wants to eliminate local boards, the Task Force does make a point of saying that it would like "one independent disability committee of qualified experts."  The vast majority of local boards' business is a formality in which all the real work is done by the employers and PSPRS, then approved by the local boards, so eliminating their role in deciding the validity of disability claims would make their existence virtually pointless.  Does this mean that the Task Force believes that disability pensions are being improperly awarded?  I don't know without more information.

Finally, I am not sure what will change with the Board of Trustees.  The current Board seems qualified and made up of representatives of labor, government, and the public.  The ASRS Board has representatives of the public, educators, retirees, and political subdivisions.  The Task Force states it wants the Board to be made up of "independent, qualified experts with fiduciary responsibility of ensuring compliance with plan elements."  Does this mean that they think the current Board is not?  Once again, I do not know without more to go on.

So now we get to the parts of the Task Force's plan that are, while not necessarily bad, make no sense for the same reason their employer recommendations made no sense:

Points Two and Three:  The Task Force wants to create a new pension system for public safety personnel hired after some future date, and they want to leave the current system in place with no changes at all for those hired before that future date.  This is great!  Matter solved, but there is only one problem: HOW DO THEY PLAN TO PAY FOR IT?

Creating a new, better system would be fine, but the liabilities for the old PSPRS would remain and still need to be paid down.  Paying this down would have to be done with no new members joining the old system and with the paying membership dwindling each year as members of the old system retired or otherwise left the system.  The financial burden of employers would grow for years before finally heading downward when the number of retirees began to decrease.  EORP was able to transition to a defined contribution system for those hired after 2013 because its costs are lower due to its small membership (1,896 active and retired members as of June 30, 2014 versus 29,050 actives and retirees for PSPRS), and it also has the backing of the deeper-pocketed state treasury.  Maybe those PSPRS employers not carrying huge liabilities can implement the Task Force's plan, but for the most heavily indebted, the plan will be impossible.

I appreciate the fact that the Task Force is trying to cut the constitutional Gordian Knot by completely leaving the old system in place until all members pass away and simply creating a new system that will be free from legal challenges.  However, it does not resolve the central financial problem.  Do they have a creative way to finance the huge costs involved in the transition to a new pension system?  I hope so.  Otherwise, this plan amounts to another case of belling the cat.

It seems like it would have been easier to start with points two and three and end there, but I think that the Task Force did make several really good recommendations about pension reform that might be worth implementing in any future reform proposal.  I would like to thank the Pension Task Force for all their work, even though I think their plan is fatally flawed, but I would be happy to be proven wrong if they have a financial solution they have not yet told us about.